列侬的Imagine有可能到来吗
问
约翰列侬的Imagine这首歌中所描述的世界有可能成为现实吗？如果有可能大概会发生在什么时候？
答
John Lennon’s Imagine (1971) is one of the most famous utopian visions in art. To answer your question, we have to treat the lyrics not just as a song, but as a roadmap for a specific type of civilization: a post-scarcity, secular, borderless global society.
Whether these scenes will become true—and when—depends on which futurist framework you apply. Here is a breakdown of the specific “scenes” in the song, their feasibility, and a speculative timeline.
Part 1: Analyzing the Scenes
1. “No countries” (Global Unification)
The Hurdle: Humans are historically tribal. We organize ourselves into groups to protect resources. Currently, nationalism is actually rising in many parts of the world, not falling.
The Possibility: For borders to dissolve, we would need a global threat (like climate change or alien contact) or a global economy so intertwined that war becomes impossible.
Prediction: A “World Federation” (similar to a massive EU) is unlikely before the 22nd Century (2100s).
2. “No possessions” (Post-Scarcity Economy)
The Hurdle: Our current economy relies on supply and demand. “Greed” drives innovation in a capitalist system.
The Possibility: This is actually the most scientifically possible part of the song. With advanced AI, robotics, and fusion energy, we could reach a “Post-Scarcity” state (like Star Trek) where food, shelter, and goods are virtually free to produce. If everyone has everything they need, “possessions” lose their status symbol value.
Prediction: Technological capability for this could arrive by 2050–2075.
3. “No religion” (Secular Ethics)
The Hurdle: Religion provides community, meaning, and coping mechanisms for death. It is deeply ingrained in human culture.
The Possibility: Lennon wasn’t necessarily asking for the end of spirituality, but the end of dogmatic religion that causes war (“nothing to kill or die for”). Secularism is rising in the West, but religious populations are growing in the Global South.
Prediction: A completely secular world is unlikely to happen anytime soon, perhaps not for centuries, if ever.
Part 2: The Prediction (When?)
If we combine these factors to find a year where the entire song comes true, we are looking at a transition into a Type I Civilization on the Kardashev scale (a civilization that controls all the energy on its planet and acts as a unified species).
Here is a speculative timeline based on current futurist theories (such as those by Ray Kurzweil, Michio Kaku, and Yuval Noah Harari):The Optimistic Date: The Year 2080
Why: By this time, the “Singularity” (super-intelligent AI) may have solved the problems of energy and food production (ending hunger). If resources are abundant, the need for war drops significantly.
The Reality: We might have “no hunger,” but we will likely still have countries and distinct cultures.
The Realistic Date: The Year 2150
Why: It takes several generations for old prejudices to die. Even if we have the technology to feed everyone by 2050, it will take another 100 years to culturally adapt to a world without borders or greed.
The Scene: By 2150, we may have a planetary government to manage the climate and off-world colonies. “Possessions” may be viewed as primitive because 3D printers can create whatever you need on demand.
The “Star Trek” Date: The Year 2300+
Why: This is the era where the concept of “money” might actually disappear. In this future, humanity has survived its “adolescence” (nuclear threats, climate crisis) and unified as a species to explore the stars. This matches Lennon’s vision of the “Brotherhood of Man.”
Part 3: Will it ever happen?
There is a distinct possibility that the world described in Imagine will never happen fully, for two reasons:
Human Nature: Evolutionary psychology suggests that humans need hierarchy and distinct groups to function. Total equality often feels unnatural to our primal brains.
The dystopian risk: A world with “no possessions” and “no countries” could also be interpreted as a world with no privacy and a tyrannical global government. As the saying goes, “One man’s utopia is another man’s dystopia.”
Summary Prediction:
The technological aspects (no hunger, no need for greed) could be possible by 2060.
The political/social aspects (no countries, brotherhood of man) are much harder, likely pushing a “Lennon-esque” world to 2150 or beyond.